Do HubSpot won deals and Xero collections move together?
Sales and cash often look as if they move in step. A correlation puts a number on how closely the two monthly totals have tracked each other, without claiming that one caused the other.
By Manny Sidhu · Practical guide · Published · Updated
The two monthly totals
For each calendar month, Ask Alex adds up two figures. From HubSpot: the value of deals marked won, by close date. From Xero: recorded invoice payments minus customer refunds, by payment date.
Open deals are not counted, and lost deals add nothing to won value. Every closed deal in your dates must have an amount and a close date; if one does not, the answer stops rather than treating it as zero.
The correlation figure
Ask Alex then calculates the Pearson correlation between the two monthly series: a number from -1 to 1, rounded to three decimal places. Close to 1, months with more won deal value also tended to have more collections. Close to 0, there was no consistent straight-line pattern. Close to -1, the two moved in opposite directions.
The answer shows the figure, how many months were compared, and both totals for every month, so the pattern can be checked month by month.
An illustrative example
Illustrative example, not customer data: for the 12 complete months from July 2025 to June 2026, the answer reports a correlation of 0.420 and lists each month's won deal value beside that month's collections.
Months, dates, and time zone
Your dates must start on the first day of a month and end on the last day of a month, covering 6 to 36 complete months. Months are counted in UTC (Coordinated Universal Time), so in Melbourne each month starts at 10am or 11am on the 1st, not at midnight.
The last month must have ended, and both HubSpot and Xero must have synced after it ended. If not, Ask Alex declines rather than comparing a partial month. Days outside either system's synced history are not counted as zero.
What the figure cannot tell you
A correlation describes how two totals moved together. It does not show that deals turned into invoices or payments, which customers paid for which deals, or what will happen next, and the answer says so.
Each month's deals are compared with the same month's collections. Payment delays and seasonal patterns are not adjusted for, so a business whose customers usually pay two months after a deal closes may see a low figure. Comparing with a delay, or by customer or sales rep, is not supported yet.
If either monthly series is identical every month, the correlation cannot be calculated, and Ask Alex says so. Both systems must use the same single currency; if they differ, the answer stops.
What each answer shows
Every Ask Alex answer lists its source, scope, time, assumptions, and calculation, along with the HubSpot deals and Xero payments behind each month's totals. The totals and the correlation are calculated by code from those records.